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Simple Climate Models

Model Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas induced Climate Change (MAGICC)
Description / Purpose Simple climate model to examine time-dependent effects. Can be used in the formulation of climate metrics for total anthropogenic sources.
Data source / Input Emissions scenarios.
Output Calculates time-dependent concentrations, radiative forcing, temperature response and sea-level rise from different perturbations.
Spatial dimension Global
Temporal dimension Annual
Sample applications Extensively used in IPCC and elsewhere.
Model Linear Climate response model (LinClim)
Description / Purpose Simple climate model to examine time-dependent effects. Can be used in the formulation of climate metrics for aviation and shipping sectors and to investigate uncertainties in climate metrics such as GTP. Can provide guidance on which technology developments are likely to result in the least environmental damage in terms of global radiative forcing and temperature response under a given scenario.
Data source / Input Aircraft fuel, shipping emissions, emission indices, reference radiative forcing from GCM, tuning parameters from GCM.
Output Calculates time-dependent radiative forcing and temperature response from different pertubations (CO2, O3/CH4(from NOx), sulphate, black carbon and contrails).
Spatial dimension Global
Temporal dimension Annual
Sample applications Used in QUANTIFY, ATTICA projects. Published results in 2 Atmospheric Environment papers in relation to aircraft application. Also used for European Commission project on developing aviation emissions trading scheme andIMOclimate impacts of shipping.



MAGICC

  • Wigley T.M.L. (1993) Balancing the carbon budget. Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes. Tellus, 45B, 409-425.
  • Raper S.C.B., Gregory J.M., Osborn T.J. (2001) Use of an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to simulate and diagnose A/OGCM results. Climate Dynamics, 17, 601-613.
  • Wigley T.M.L., Raper S.C.B. (2001) Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science, Vol 293, 451-454.
  • Raper S.C.B., Gregory J.M., Stouffer R.J. (2002) The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake on AOGCM transient temperature response. Journal of Climate, Vol 15, 124-130.
  • Wigley T.M.L., Smith S.J., Prather M.J. (2002) Radiative forcing due to reactive gas emissions. Journal of Climate, Vol 15, 2690-2696.
  • Meinshausen M., Raper S.C.B., Wigley T.M.L. (2011) Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration.  Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1417-1456. doi:10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011
  • Meinshausen M., Wigley T.M.L., Raper S.C.B. (2011) Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 2: Applications.  Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1457-1471. doi:10.5194/acp-11-1457-2011

LinClim

  • Sausen R. and Schumann U. (2000) Estimates of the climate response to aircraft CO2 and NOx emissions scenarios. Climatic Change, 44, 27-58.
  • Lee D.S., Fahey D., Forster P., Newton P.J., Wit R.C.N., Lim L.L., Owen B. and Sausen R. (2009) Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century. Atmospheric Environment 43, 3520–3537.
  • Lee D.S., Pitari G., Grewe V., Gierens K., Penner J.E., Petzold A., Prather M., Schumann U., Bais A., Berntsen T., Iachetti D., Lim L.L. and Sausen R. (2009) Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation. Atmospheric Environment doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.06.005.